WAR AND THE MODERN BATTLEFIELD
INSIGHTS FROM UKRAINE AND THE MIDDLE EAST
A Report by the CSIS Defense and Security Department
September 16, 2025
The United States and its allies face one of the most dangerous international security environments in recent history. Russia and Ukraine are locked in Europe’s largest land war since World War II, war has periodically engulfed the Middle East between Israel and Iran, and significant tensions persist in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, East China Sea, and Korean Peninsula. An axis of adversaries that includes China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea may be headed toward deepening bilateral relations.
As the chapters in this volume conclude, some aspects of warfare have changed preciously little. The nature of warfare is still, as Clausewitz writes, “an act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfill our will.” Several facets of warfare that were central to the Cold War—such as nuclear weapons, irregular warfare, artillery and missiles, national resilience, and the mobilization of society—have returned to the forefront.
But there are new dimensions in warfare. There will likely be a proliferation of cheaper and more lethal unmanned systems—air, undersea, surface, and ground. There will also likely be an explosion of open-source intelligence and growing transparency on the battlefield. AI, quantum sensing and computing, biotechnology, space-based sensors, and other technologies may be increasingly important and create a ravenous need for data storage and cloud computing. There is a growing democratization of space thanks to evolving commercial technology. Finally, countries dealing with incoming missile and drone threats are examining new technologies, such as directed energy systems, to defeat and deter air and missile swarms and salvos.
Yet the United States is not fully prepared for the rapidly changing character of warfare, its defense industrial base is not ready for a protracted conflict, and its defense budget is significantly lower than at any point during the Cold War as a percentage of gross domestic product. The following chapters explore the evolving character of warfare in such areas as strategy, operations, tactics, and the defense industry. The report closes with an examination of a new offset to deter a rising China.
The United States and its allies face one of the most dangerous international security environments in recent history. Russia and Ukraine are locked in Europe’s largest land war since World War II, war has periodically engulfed the Middle East between Israel and Iran, and significant tensions persist in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, East China Sea, and Korean Peninsula. An axis of adversaries that includes China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea may be headed toward deepening bilateral relations.
As the chapters in this volume conclude, some aspects of warfare have changed preciously little. The nature of warfare is still, as Clausewitz writes, “an act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfill our will.” Several facets of warfare that were central to the Cold War—such as nuclear weapons, irregular warfare, artillery and missiles, national resilience, and the mobilization of society—have returned to the forefront.
But there are new dimensions in warfare. There will likely be a proliferation of cheaper and more lethal unmanned systems—air, undersea, surface, and ground. There will also likely be an explosion of open-source intelligence and growing transparency on the battlefield. AI, quantum sensing and computing, biotechnology, space-based sensors, and other technologies may be increasingly important and create a ravenous need for data storage and cloud computing. There is a growing democratization of space thanks to evolving commercial technology. Finally, countries dealing with incoming missile and drone threats are examining new technologies, such as directed energy systems, to defeat and deter air and missile swarms and salvos.
Yet the United States is not fully prepared for the rapidly changing character of warfare, its defense industrial base is not ready for a protracted conflict, and its defense budget is significantly lower than at any point during the Cold War as a percentage of gross domestic product. The following chapters explore the evolving character of warfare in such areas as strategy, operations, tactics, and the defense industry. The report closes with an examination of a new offset to deter a rising China.
INTRODUCTION
How to Think About Modern Warfare
One of the U.S. military’s most important priorities against a rapidly modernizing China should be to develop an offset strategy, which includes a joint operational concept and capabilities to deter and defeat a Chinese military incursion.
I.
STRATEGY, POLITICS, AND SOCIETY
Adversaries and the Future of Competition
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have increased security cooperation in arms sales, military exercises, and the industrial base, though there are limits. Bilateral cooperation is likely to increase in the future, which has major implications for the future of warfare.
Will, Cohesion, Resilience, and the Wars of the Future
In both Ukraine and Israel, the story of resilience is not only about battlefield endurance but also the mobilization of society—military, civilian, technological, and psychological—to resist aggression and maintain national cohesion.
Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear Risk
The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.
II.
OPERATIONS, TACTICS, AND TECHNOLOGY
Operational Art in the Age of Battle Networks
From Ukraine to the Middle East, a new age of warfare is dawning. Information-centric battle networks are rewriting the rules, prioritizing cognitive shock and decisionmaking speed over traditional military mass. How will modern militaries adapt and survive?
Intelligence in a Transparent World
With the proliferation of AI processing tools and post-quantum decryption, future intelligence services must either devise more extreme workarounds—or accept the difficulty of hiding and learn to fight in the light.
The Enduring Role of Fires on the Modern Battlefield
Artillery has long been known as the “king of battle,” and for good reason. The future of warfare will likely be characterized by an increased demand signal for offensive and defensive fires.
The Evolution of Landpower
In an age of satellites and cyberattacks, the future of warfare is still decided on the ground. Land is not just a domain to be won—it is the indispensable hub that connects and controls all others, from sea lanes to space.
Extending the Battlespace to Space
As space technology becomes more accessible, satellite data and services have become a great equalizer and force multiplier in war—and a target. Looking ahead, the space domain will be central to conflict, serving not only as enabler but as a contested arena of operations.
Technological Evolution on the Battlefield
The next generation of warfare will be defined not by who holds the latest technology, but by who can integrate, adapt, and counter it fastest.
The Evolution of Airpower
The future of military air power will reflect warfighting experiences from Ukraine and the Middle East, but lessons from these conflicts should only serve as jumping off points for the future. Expect greater use of uncrewed systems, AI-enabled lethal autonomous weapons, and improved camouflage technologies.
The Future of Seapower
Ukraine has neutered the Russian fleet using uncrewed systems and long-range strike. Yet, operations in the Red Sea and elsewhere reaffirm the value of traditional naval assets. How should navies balance investments in capabilities of old and new?
The Evolution of Irregular Warfare
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have demonstrated that irregular warfare is a defining feature of contemporary conflict and a strategic domain in its own right. Ignoring it would be a grave miscalculation in an era of persistent geopolitical competition.
III.
IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENSE PLANNING AND INDUSTRY
Defense Budgets in an Uncertain Security Environment
Uncertainty in the current global security environment since the start of the Ukraine war has increased global defense spending as states perceive themselves to be at greater risk. But political and fiscal realities will also shape future defense spending levels.
Industrial Roadblocks: Producing at Scale and Adopting New Technologies
Modern conflicts underscore the need for a robust defense industrial base that can embrace innovation and rapidly scale production—both to deter adversaries and to prevail if deterrence fails.
Power Projection and the Logistics of Modern War
Logistics, including supply chains, industrial capacity, and transportation networks, will be contested in future wars. Deterrence and operational effectiveness depend on sustaining readiness through protracted conflict.
CONCLUSION
The Next Offset: Winning the Fight Before It Starts
One of the U.S. military’s most important priorities against a rapidly modernizing China should be to develop an offset strategy, which includes a joint operational concept and capabilities to deter and defeat a Chinese military incursion.
Read the full report, featuring analyses and expert insights from the CSIS Defense and Security Department.
Acknowledgements
This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.
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Photo Credits
Cover: A civilian drone used by Ukrainian military man. | Modifications to video by Dmytro Sheremeta via Getty Images
Introduction: (Banner Image) U.S. military vehicles at the military base for U.S. troops which being established at the Mielec Airport. Mielec, Poland on February 12, 2022. | Modifications to photograph by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images (1.) US Army soldiers stand in formation next to a US flag. | NIKOLAY DOYCHINOV/AFP via Getty Images
I. Strategy, Politics, and Society: (Banner Image) U.S. military vehicles at the military base for U.S. troops which being established at the Mielec Airport. Mielec, Poland on February 12, 2022. | Modifications to photograph by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images (1.) Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping shaking hands during a meeting in Beijing on October 18, 2023. | Sergei Guneyev/Pool/AFP via Getty Images (2.) Ukrainian military personnel stand near drones during “Birds for Victory” charity campaign on June 19, 2023 in Lviv, Ukraine. | Les Kasyanov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images (3.) Aerial view of the United States Navy James Madison-class fleet Polaris ballistic missile nuclear submarine, the USS Sam Rayburn (SSBN-635) during sea trials in the Atlantic on 12th November 1964. US Navy Official Photo USN 1107020. | Keystone/Hulton Archive via Getty Images
Photo Credits, continued
II. Operations, Tactics, and Technology: (Banner Image) U.S. military vehicles at the military base for U.S. troops which being established at the Mielec Airport. Mielec, Poland on February 12, 2022. | Modifications to photograph by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images (1.) The General Atomics MQ-9B Reaper Unmanned Aerial Vehicle is staged at the U.S. Army Yuma Proving Grounds, U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command, Yuma, Ariz., Nov. 7, 2019. | U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Colton Brownlee (2.) An overview of a SIGINT facility near Changji, approximately 25 kilometers north-northwest of Ürümqi, the capital of Xinjiang Province. | Photo DigitalGlobe via Getty Images (3.) The PAC-3 MSE is a highly sought-after air defense munition due to its advanced capabilities and versatility. | Official U.S. Army photo by Darrell Ames (4.) Swedish soldiers wait to take part in a training exercise on the Finland/Norway border during the Nordic Response military exercise on March 09, 2024 in Kivilompolo, Finland. | Leon Neal via Getty Images (5.) Color satellite image of Ukraine and neighbouring countries, including part of Russia, Belarus, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Crimea, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia. | Planet Observer/Universal Images Group via Getty Images (6.) A 'Made in Ukraine' sticker is attached to a MAGURA V5, a Ukrainian multi-purpose unmanned surface vehicle (USV) developed for use by the Defence Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry. | Pavlo Bahmut/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images (7.) Different generations of fighter planes. | George Bekris via Getty Images (8.) A MAGURA V5, a Ukrainian multi-purpose unmanned surface vehicle (USV) developed for use by the Defence Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, is demonstrated during events organised by JSC Ukrainian Defense Industry (UkrOboronProm) to mark the Defence and Industrial Complex Employee Day. | Pavlo Bahmut/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images (9.) Yemenis raise a Lebanese Hezbollah flag and a rifle during a rally held in the Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa on October 4, 2024, in protest against Israel's attacks on Lebanon and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. | Mohammed Huwais/AFP via Getty Images
III. Implications for Defense Planning and Industry: (Banner Image) U.S. military vehicles at the military base for U.S. troops which being established at the Mielec Airport. Mielec, Poland on February 12, 2022. | Modifications to photograph by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images (1.) US President Donald Trump, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other Heads of State are seen at the plenary session during the 76th NATO Summit in the World Forum in The Hague, Netherlands on June 25th, 2025. | Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images (2.) 155 millimeter (6.1 in) caliber shells displayed during a visit at the site of the KNDS factory in La Chapelle-Saint-Ursin. | Jean-Francois Monier /AFP via Getty Images (3.) The German navy corvette "Braunschweig" (L) accompanies a freighter (R) laden with military combat and transport vehicles on its way to Lithuania, out of the Warnemuende port in Rostock, northeastern Germany, on September 4, 2025, during the Quadriga 2025 military exercises. | John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images
Conclusion: (Banner Image) U.S. military vehicles are seen at the military base for U.S. troops which being established at the Mielec Airport. Mielec, Poland on February 12, 2022. | Modifications to photograph by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images (1.) China's liquid-fueled intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles DongFeng-5C pass through Tian'anmen Square during the V-Day military parade on September 3, 2025 in Beijing, China. | Sheng Jiapeng/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images
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