Surviving Scarcity

Human civilization was born out of the Middle East’s waterways. As ancient cities grew from thousands to millions, agriculture also expanded to support livelihoods, trade, and food security.

Today, the Middle East is facing a water crisis.

Beyond the hydrological needs they were designed to meet, dams represented the region’s power and potential. Egypt’s Aswan High Dam became not only about controlling water, but about sovereignty.

Under the glimmering surface of seemingly endless expanses of water, tensions loomed.

Water tables were falling, stored water was evaporating at increasing rates, and subnational and transboundary tensions were rising.

But the rush to construct dams continued into the twenty-first century, driven by a strategy that prioritized near-term wins and sovereignty over sustainable cooperation.

Faced with growing scarcity, local authorities are forced to cut people off from water. While the Iraqi government once provided diesel, water, seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides at a subsidized rate or for free, the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture slashed irrigation for agriculture by 50 percent in 2022. Across the border, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria has rationed water for farmers and limited them to sowing 25 percent of their land for certain crops.

Those dependent on the flailing agricultural sector then struggle to find work elsewhere.

Reimagining the Fertile Crescent

Reducing agricultural demand for water in the birthplace of settled agriculture is a politically difficult but necessary place to start.

The Water Innovations Technologies (WIT) project in Jordan, which aimed to help households and farmers implement a number of water-saving activities, highlights why. It divided the cost of each activity by the volume of water saved to get a cost-effectiveness figure for each cubic meter of water. That number was nearly 170 times greater for agricultural investments than household ones. And the solutions implemented under the project were simple.

Installing drip irrigation and sensors to determine precisely when the soil requires more water sounds complicated and expensive, but they are relatively low-tech and low-cost solutions.

Building on the success of the project, though, requires overcoming certain challenges that are common in many international aid projects.

Since Jordanian farmers’ water is still essentially free, farmers had little incentive to maintain these systems on their own after the end of the project. And since water consumption is poorly regulated, many farmers simply diverted the water they saved through the project to other uses. Overall water use stayed steady.

This program points to the limitations of projects that fail to address political challenges.

Farmers in most countries receive free water or pay a few cents per cubic meter for it. Illegal wells are also common.

Many reforms have rightly focused on raising prices, punishing water theft, and restricting water allotments. But powerful agricultural landowners make raising the cost of water or curbing theft difficult and sometimes deadly. In a wave of protests in Jordan in 2017, one slogan was explicit: “Raising prices is playing with fire.”

Sticks without incentives or alternatives for farmers are unlikely to work. Providing continuous support to farmers using water conservation systems is essential in the near term. Subsidizing less water-intensive crops may also be necessary to shift away from more water-intensive crops that have been grown for generations.

Hydroponics and vertical farming are also promising. They can use around 80-99 percent less water than open-field agriculture. If these energy-intensive practices can be powered by renewable energy, they could potentially be scaled. However, in many countries, excessive red tape tends to stymie these efforts.

Subsidizing, rather than frustrating these projects, would make them more financially viable, sustainable, and scalable with little political risk.

From Waste to Water

Reusing treated wastewater is another more politically feasible solution.

Treating wastewater and gray water protects freshwater supplies, increases water supply for uses that include agriculture and livestock fodder, improves health outcomes, and mitigates climate change. Reducing methane emissions through proper wastewater treatment can immediately reduce warming. Despite these benefits, many countries in the Middle East have little to no adequate wastewater treatment.

An outlier is Jordan. The As-Samra wastewater treatment facility in Jordan serves 65 percent of the country’s population. The large scale allows the plant to produce 80 percent of its own energy needs from biogas and hydropower. The treated wastewater is then routed to the King Abdullah Canal, adding over 100 million cubic meters of treated effluent to farmers’ limited water resources in the Jordan valley. While farmers were hesitant to use treated wastewater, simply adding the treated wastewater to existing agricultural water sources worked.

Improving the collection and treatment of gray water and stormwater would also reduce flooding hazards and increase supply.

Once again, the devil is in the politics.

While effective treatment is a game changer for water security, it is expensive. And many politicians are not willing to pay for the construction and maintenance of water-related infrastructure. In 2018, the Iraqi government allocated only $15 million, or less than 0.2 percent of the overall budget to the water ministry.

Wastewater treatment also arouses “not in my backyard” feelings. Often, residents think being close to a treatment plant will devalue their land or smell.

Raising the awareness of citizens on the risks of failing to treat wastewater will be necessary to put pressure on governments and convince communities of the benefits.

It's Not Just about Water

Urbanization

Addressing water insecurity will not just be about water. For much of the Middle East, the fallout of scarcity and climate change is irreversible and must be dealt with. Many farmers may abandon their farms for the cities for good, and the global trend toward urbanization is unlikely to slow. Failing to accommodate this urban growth could be disastrous.

If farmers run out of water and move to cities where their livelihoods are criminalized, tensions will boil over.

This is what happened to Mohamed Bouazizi, a Tunisian man who set himself on fire in 2010 and the rest of the Arab world with him. Yet, his is a common story in the Middle East. As such, even water experts are now begging their governments to find job opportunities for citizens outside of agriculture.

On the other hand, if governments built up their cities more sustainably and inclusively, they could turn a seemingly harmful trend into one that adapts to climate change. Urbanization is an opportunity to move away from an agrarian economy—to which the most water-stressed region in the world is not well-suited—to other sectors.

Transboundary Relations

The aforementioned reforms will build trust not only between citizens and their governments but also with upstream neighbors. Improving water management within countries would make it more difficult for upstream countries like Turkey to blame downstream neighbors like Iraq for their own water woes.

However, improving transboundary water sharing will not just revolve around water. Developing other economic and political linkages with transboundary neighbors can also shift water from a zero-sum game to a more cooperative endeavor. Though Turkey and Iraq haggle over allocations of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, the countries’ important economic and political ties have, at times, pushed Ankara to release more water to its southern neighbor.

Building Trust to Move Forward

Both long-term planning and cooperation are needed for improving water security within and between states. But a low-trust environment, like the Middle East, shortens planning horizons and generates little incentives for cooperation.

Rebuilding that trust will require more transparency from governments and more awareness from citizens. A recent example comes from Jordan. In 2023, the government announced a gradual increase in water tariffs. Unlike previous price hikes, the resistance was moderate. Experts say it was due to a widespread public campaign to explain the reforms and the reasons for them.

Governments should view civil society as an ally in this process, rather than a threat. Activists, scientists, and academics can identify polluters and raise awareness among local communities on the need for change.