Staying Ahead
in the Global
Technology Race
A Roadmap for
Economic Security
A Report by the CSIS Economic
Security and Technology Department
October 29, 2024
Introduction by Navin Girishankar
President of the Economic Security and Technology Department
Resolving the Emerging Economic Security Trilemma
The United States is in the midst of a generational shift in economic policy and its role in national security planning. Even in these polarized times, there is surprising consensus across the American political spectrum that the economic policies and global institutions fostered since World War II are no longer adequate. They have left the United States vulnerable to competition with non-market actors, principally China; domestic economic dislocations; and global crises such as climate change and pandemics. These vulnerabilities persist and will await the next administration.
The need for an allied approach to economic security is now axiomatic. It will require the United States to lead and partner in equal measures as it navigates the emerging economic security policy trilemma between promote, protect, and partner policies. The challenge for the next administration is to focus on the time- and stress-tested drivers of innovation—competition in secure, trusted international technology markets and cooperation with allies.
Read an introduction from Navin Girishankar, and the full report.
Introduction by Navin Girishankar
President of the Economic Security and Technology Department
Resolving the Emerging Economic Security Trilemma
The United States is in the midst of a generational shift in economic policy and its role in national security planning. Even in these polarized times, there is surprising consensus across the American political spectrum that the economic policies and global institutions fostered since World War II are no longer adequate. They have left the United States vulnerable to competition with non-market actors, principally China; domestic economic dislocations; and global crises such as climate change and pandemics. These vulnerabilities persist and will await the next administration.
The need for an allied approach to economic security is now axiomatic. It will require the United States to lead and partner in equal measures as it navigates the emerging economic security policy trilemma between promote, protect, and partner policies. The challenge for the next administration is to focus on the time- and stress-tested drivers of innovation—competition in secure, trusted international technology markets and cooperation with allies.
I.
Protecting Sensitive Technologies,
Preserving U.S. Advantage
Future Directions for Export Controls and Investment Screening
Mismatch of Strategy and Budgets in AI Chip Export Controls
The next administration must contend with the unwavering importance of U.S. semiconductor export controls. To maintain a competitive advantage over China, the United States must match its comprehensive export control strategy with the necessary resources.
From Reaction to Strategy: A New Framework for U.S. Export Control Enforcement
The United States can transform its export control strategy from a reactive “siege wall” to a proactive pre-approvals regime, targeting critical chokepoints to curb China’s indigenization drive, and fostering stronger cooperation with allies.
Defensive Measures Against China: Time for a Reevaluation
The cumulative effects of U.S. defensive economic actions against China deserve careful evaluation, including their potential negative consequences. The United States and its allies should reassess their approach and adapt as needed.
II.
The Investing in America Agenda:
The Role of Government and Markets in Reindustrialization
Clustering for Innovation
By fostering the growth of regional ecosystems, partnerships encourage more Americans to connect to the nation’s economic future and drive U.S. technological competitiveness in global markets—securing the nation both from within and from external threats.
Meeting the Energy Demands of Economic Competition
As the United States adopts a more assertive approach to economic security and tech competition, it must adapt its energy policy. Realizing the potential of these industries will require more energy, placing demands on the grid and necessitating a smart approach.
Intellectual Property Rights and the Future of US Technological Leadership
The next administration should consider IP as part of its broader innovation agenda, not as an issue of technical obscurity to be treated in isolation. A strong IP system works for everyone.
The Necessity of a National Interest Account
The next administration’s success in great power competition hinges on execution, but they will rapidly find that new tools are needed. Urgent work is required to create options where there are none, and a National Interest Account should be proposal number one.
III.
Technology Cooperation, Competition, and Economic Relations
India’s Ascending Role for American Economic Security
The next U.S. administration should engage global partners like India before taking decisions related to economic security. India is a jobs partner, a technology partner, and an emerging security partner that rightly expects some degree of consultation and cooperation.
Making Infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific a Success
To compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the United States and its partners and allies must engage the private sector, mobilize its collective resources, and work with targeted markets to provide the trillions of dollars in infrastructure funding.
Can the United States Have a Trade Policy Without Market Access?
The Biden administration’s refusal to include market access in trade negotiations is a missed opportunity given the importance of reciprocity in economic partnerships. What does this mean for the next president’s agenda?
Rethinking Competition with China on Clean Technologies
Amid competition with China, the United States should not just seek derisking but also actively avoid technological isolation and encourage its companies to compete on the international stage in emerging and next-generation clean technologies.
IV.
Technology Statecraft and Global Governance
Building a Tech Alliance
Senior U.S. leadership should build on existing frameworks to create a path toward a successful technology alliance amongst democracies.
Read the report to find the full introduction and analyses, featuring expert insights from the CSIS Economic Security and Technology Department.
iDeas Lab Story Production
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Development: Lindsay Allison
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PDF report design by: William H. Taylor
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Photo Credits
Protecting Sensitive Tech: (Top Left) Dan74 via Adobe Stock, (Right) Shipping containers are seen stacked on a ship docked at the Port of Oakland on June 07, 2023 in Oakland, California. | Justin Sullivan via Getty Images (Bottom) The US Department of Commerce building is seen in Washington, DC, in February 2, 2024 | Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images
Investing in America: (Top Left) knssr via Adobe Stock (Top Right) TebNad via Adobe Stock (Bottom Left) A photo of the Patent And Trademark Office Headquarters. | Eli Wilson via Adobe Stock (Bottom Right) The Capitol Building is seen from the National Mall in Washington DC on Friday, August 9, 2024. | AARON SCHWARTZ/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
Tech Cooperation & Competition: (Top Left) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during an event at Nassau County Veterans Memorial Coliseum in East Meadow, New York on September 22, 2024. | Leonardo Munoz/AFP via Getty Images (Top Right) This picture taken on February 8, 2020 shows Chinese workers building the first rail line linking China to Laos, a key part of Beijing's 'Belt and Road' project across the Mekong, in Luang Prabang. | AIDAN JONES/AFP via Getty Images (Bottom Left) Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, center, and economic leaders pose for a group photo during the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and Prosperity ministerial during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit at Mariott Marquis on November, 14, 2023 in San Francisco, California. | Kent Nishimura/Getty Images (Bottom Right) Monica Muñoz, top, and Denise Denning place black encapsulation material on solar panels at Elin Energys solar panel manufacturing facility on Thursday, April 25, 2024 in Brookshire. | Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images
Tech Statecraft: NicoElNino via Adobe Stock
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