2024 Global Forecast:
A World Dividing - Part I
THE CHINA
CHALLENGE
The CSIS 2024 Global Forecast—A World Dividing—offers insights from dozens of our scholars on the most urgent questions in the year ahead around security, technology, geoeconomics, alliances, and regional influence.
This first installment of A World Dividing examines the myriad challenges facing U.S.-China relations in 2024: How can the United States and its allies deter Chinese military activity and counter economic coercion? What will it take for the United States to outcompete China in the tech race? And how can the United States enhance its geopolitical standing as China aggressively expands its global reach?
We invite you to explore the diverse perspectives below to deepen your thinking on these questions.
Visit A World Dividing to read all installments of the CSIS 2024 Global Forecast, featuring expert insights on the global economic and tech race; the ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East; and the battle for influence in the Global South.
Economic Security
Countering China’s Weaponization of Economic Interdependence
Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair
"China’s weaponization of trade is at the core of its building of an illiberal order. The Biden administration will need to think outside the box in deterring this practice."
Technology Will Remain
the Heart of U.S.-China Competition in 2024
Gregory C. Allen, Director, Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies
"Despite the broad budget cuts elsewhere, Chinese government spending for the technology sector is skyrocketing, especially in the semiconductor sector, where U.S. export controls are most painful and threatening."
Evolving Evaluations of China’s Economy: The Bad, the Ugly, and the Mean
Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
"Although few multinational companies (MNCs) are outright abandoning China, some are selling off some of their China-based assets and diversifying their places of production and supply chains, and few MNCs are investing in China for the first time."
Determining the right China strategy requires a clear assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese economy and its effects, positive and negative, on the United States and rest of the world. Although an intense debate on China during an election year could produce a substantial amount of heat, if carried out thoughtfully, it could produce much-needed light as well.
Defense
Built in China: Beijing’s Defense Industrial Base and Implications for the United States
Seth G. Jones, Senior Vice President, Harold Brown Chair, and Director,
International Security Program
"China is rapidly developing a robust defense industrial base to deter, fight, and win a war against the United States."
2024: The Year That Launched China’s Commercial Space Sector?
Kari A. Bingen, Director, Aerospace Security Project, and Senior Fellow,
International Security Program
"China’s space capabilities are rapidly growing in quantity and quality, accelerated by clear political will, government prioritization, and large state and private investments."
Nuclear Credibility and How to Deter China
Heather Williams, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues, and Senior Fellow,
International Security Program
"To demonstrate resolve, the United States must rely on both military and political tools. Reduced reliance on nuclear weapons could signal that U.S. leadership lacks the stomach to uphold security commitments."
Does the United States have the resolve to defend its interests and allies? U.S. adversaries and allies know of U.S. domestic political polarization. Xi, like Putin, may be waiting for a change in administration that will see many of Biden’s regional initiatives overturned.
From Mud to Space: Adapting Missile Defenses to the China Threat
Tom Karako, Senior Fellow, International Security Program,
and Director, Missile Defense Project
"The surge in the global supply and demand for both a spectrum of long-range standoff capabilities and the means to contend with them is a defining feature of a new missile age."
Adapting U.S. missile defenses to Chinese threats will require significant changes across policy and capabilities. New efforts should include a candid reassessment of U.S. missile defense doctrine, an updated space sensor constellation for missile tracking, and increased force protection capabilities in critical locations like Guam.
Taiwan
Beijing’s More Coercive Approach toward Taiwan in 2024 and Beyond
Bonny Lin, Senior Fellow for Asian Security and Director, China Power Project
"Overall, 2024 is likely to be a determining year for cross-strait relations. If the survey results reflect Beijing’s calculus, China is likely to further escalate coercion and demonstrate its displeasure against Taiwan beyond what it has done during the Tsai administration."
Beijing’s approach toward Taiwan will shift in the wake of the island’s 2024 presidential elections. CSIS survey of leading U.S. and Taiwan experts shows concern that the election of the Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate William Lai is likely to cause China to further escalate coercion and demonstrate its displeasure against Taiwan beyond what it has done during the Tsai administration.
Deterring Xi Jinping’s Taiwan Ambitions
“Precisely because a direct attack on Taiwan brings unacceptable risk to Beijing, Xi is therefore likely disposed to ramp up coercive actions that seek to demoralize the Taiwan people and, crucially, create scenarios where the U.S. commitment to Taiwan is clearly and publicly tested.”
While the United States has been able to deter an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan for nearly 75 years, Beijing is developing a tool kit of political, economic, diplomatic, and military capabilities that are putting increasing pressure on the island democracy. In order to fend off future Chinese aggression, the United States must focus on both traditional kinetic scenarios and gray zone threats.
Allies
Sustaining Deterrence in 2024: The Critical Role of Allies
Charles Edel, Senior Adviser and Australia Chair,
and Christopher B. Johnstone, Senior Adviser and Japan Chair
“Key to sustaining deterrence in the Indo-Pacific during a period of potential American distraction—by politics at home and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East—is the role of U.S. allies.”
The Will to Fight:
Japan’s Strategy to Strengthen Deterrence
Nicholas Szechenyi, Deputy Director for Asia and Senior Fellow, Japan Chair
"The greatest variable in this endeavor is time, which Japan cannot afford to waste if it is to keep pace with China’s rapidly advancing capabilities. This necessitates tough decisions to ensure effective implementation of the defense strategy, including avenues for enhancing security cooperation with the United States."
Japan is implementing a new national defense strategy to manage what it considers the greatest strategic challenge to regional peace and security: China. Bolstering the U.S.-Japan alliance is an important pillar of that strategy. Tokyo and Washington should urgently address the operational implications for alliance cooperation to maximize the impact of Japan’s ambitious blueprint for enhancing deterrence in Northeast Asia.
Global South
Leader, Model, and Commercial Partner: China’s Strategy in the Global South
Lily McElwee, Deputy Director and Fellow, Freeman Chair in China Studies
"Another thrust of China’s diplomacy involves playing to lingering mistrust of Western intentions and prescriptions in many capitals across the Global South, emphasizing a sense of shared grievance about the uneven distribution of power and wealth in the international system."
The U.S. Global South Soft Power Tool Kit Needs to Outcompete China
Daniel F. Runde, Senior Vice President, William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis, and Director, Project on Prosperity and Development
"At the moment, the United States is playing from behind in the Global South. Given the uneven terms of the competition, it must pursue an overhaul of its tool kit and approach."
As China does not follow traditional rules of development and commercial diplomacy, the United States is struggling to find an effective approach to outcompete the authoritarian state in the long run.
Visit A World Dividing to read all installments of the CSIS 2024 Global Forecast, featuring expert insights on the global economic and tech race; the ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East; and the battle for influence in the Global South.
Editors
Craig Cohen is executive vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a bipartisan think tank in Washington, D.C. In this role, he serves as deputy to the president and CEO, responsible for overseeing and helping to achieve all aspects of the Center’s strategic, programmatic, operational, outreach, fundraising, and financial goals, including recruitment of new program directors to CSIS. Previously, Mr. Cohen served as vice president for research and programs, deputy chief of staff, and fellow in the International Security Program. He has served as editor of two anthologies of CSIS work, Global Forecast 2012 and Global Forecast 2011, as well as director of a project sponsored by the National Intelligence Council that produced the report Capacity and Resolve on foreign assessments of U.S. power. Mr. Cohen codirected the CSIS Commission on Smart Power in 2007 and authored A Perilous Course: U.S. Strategy and Assistance to Pakistan (CSIS, 2007). Mr. Cohen served as an adjunct professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School in 2006. Prior to joining CSIS, he worked with the United Nations and nongovernmental organizations in Rwanda, Azerbaijan, Malawi, and the former Yugoslavia. He received a master’s degree from the Fletcher School at Tufts University and an undergraduate degree from Duke University.
Alex Kisling is vice president of communications at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where he works alongside the chief communications officer to direct the Center’s press, digital and social media, and other external engagement efforts. He also oversees the Center’s broadcasting and publications functions. Kisling was previously the director of strategic communications at the Atlantic Council, where he served as the organization’s spokesman, oversaw the Council’s media relations portfolio, and managed comprehensive communications planning for the Council’s programs and experts. He worked for nearly a decade at the leading public affairs firms Kivvit and Public Strategies Washington conceptualizing and managing high-profile strategic communications and public policy advocacy campaigns that shaped policymaker opinion in Washington and across the United States. He began his career on Capitol Hill as an aide to Congressman Steve Driehaus (OH). He earned his bachelor's degree from Trinity College (CT).
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Photo Credits
Cover: General Secretary of the Communist Party of China CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping addresses the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection CCDI on Jan. 8, 2024. | Pang Xinglei/Xinhua via Getty Images
Economic Security: A Chinese flag is seen in front of containers at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port, an automated cargo wharf, in Shanghai. | Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images
Defense: Chinese soldiers march with the national flag, flanked by the flags of the Communist Party of China and the People's Liberation Army during a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 2019. | Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images
Taiwan: The Taiwanese flag waves on the tower of the Presidential Office Building in Taipei. | Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images
Allies: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L), US President Joe Biden (C) and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (R) hold a press conference after a trilateral meeting during the AUKUS summit on March 13, 2023 in San Diego, California. | Leon Neal/Getty Images
Global South: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at a press conference with fellow BRICS leaders President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and President of China Xi Jinping in August 2023. | Per-Anders Pettersson/Getty Images
Conclusion: Tiananmen Gate in Beijing | Nick Fewings & Yan Ke on Unsplash
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