Weathering ‘High Winds
and Stormy Waves’

China’s Search for Economic Security 

A CSIS ChinaPower Series

Chinese leaders are deeply worried about threats to China’s economic security. For decades, China achieved breakneck economic growth that seemed to suggest the country was on an inexorable rise toward “national rejuvenation.” In recent years, however, China’s economic prospects have come under question, and Beijing has grown increasingly concerned about the nation’s economic security (经济安全).   

Central to these concerns are threats to the complex web of supply chains (供应链) that keep the Chinese economy humming. In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on global supply chains, prompting China to turn its attention to shoring up its economic security.   

The end of the pandemic did not abate Beijing’s worries. The onset of the War in Ukraine in 2022, coupled with worsening U.S.-China relations and slowing domestic growth, convinced Chinese policymakers that they need to better fortify their economy against mounting threats.

In one of the most important speeches of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s career—his report to the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress in 2022—he warned of “a new period of turbulence and change” in the world that threatens China’s quest for rejuvenation. In that speech, he demanded of his party comrades that they “must enhance our sense of crisis, adhere to bottom line thinking, be prepared for danger in times of peace, and be prepared to withstand major tests of high winds and even stormy waves.” 

“[We] must enhance our sense of crisis, adhere to bottom line thinking, be prepared for danger in times of peace, and be prepared to withstand major tests of high winds and even stormy waves.”

-Xi Jinping

U.S.-China competition is front and center of Beijing’s concerns. Xi has repeatedly warned that the U.S.-led West is pursuing the “comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression” of China. Tensions with the United States have intensified as the second Trump administration has applied unprecedented trade and economic pressure on China, and geopolitical hotspots like Taiwan and the South China Sea continue to simmer.

Yet, how exactly does China define its economic security? A broad definition could encompass nearly anything. Policymakers in Beijing are no doubt worried about access to key technologies like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. China’s vulnerabilities in these areas have been the focus of much attention amid Washington’s measures to restrict the flow of those technologies into China.

A close reading of Chinese officials’ speeches, authoritative policy documents, and academic studies suggests three areas are most fundamental to China’s ultimate economic security: food security, energy security, and financial security. Without stability in these core areas, Chinese society and its supply chains cannot properly function, and China cannot compete globally.

Why These Three Pillars?

The 14th Five Year Plan for 2021-2025, China’s most authoritative economic blueprint, included a first-of-its-kind section focusing on economic security. It laid out three strategies for shoring up China’s economic security across the three areas of food, energy, and finance—a clear indication that policymakers view these three areas as most crucial to China’s overall economic health and resilience.

So, how secure or vulnerable is China in each of these pillars of economic security?  

This three-part ChinaPower series explores each of these areas in detail. The reports leverage data to analyze the most important vulnerabilities China faces, as well as key areas of strength and progress. Crucially, this series does not view China in isolation, but instead it grounds analysis of China’s situation in a comparative global context, especially in comparison to its chief competitor, the United States. 

 Explore the series:

Header video by: piola666 via GettyImages

Established in Washington, D.C. over 60 years ago, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas that address the world’s greatest challenges.

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