The Global Impact
of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
A Report of the CSIS Geopolitics
and Foreign Policy Department
Foreword by Dr. Victor Cha
President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department
and Korea Chair
An Election of Global Consequence
The audience for the U.S. presidential election is global. As Americans go to the polls, their choices have ramifications for the world. The newly formed Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at CSIS has produced a set of essays assessing the meaning of the election for Europe, Russia, Eurasia, the Indo-Pacific, the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East. While there are many differences to be found in a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency, our scholars also found few in their regions and countries preparing for continuity overall in relations with the United States after this election—they are preparing for change, with only the pace or intensity being determined by who occupies the White House in January 2025.
The U.S. election takes place at a moment when the demands of two wars in Europe and the Middle East, China’s assertiveness, and coalitions of autocratic leaders are putting unprecedented stress on the rules-based international order. These developments, as much as the election, are compelling changes in how global leaders look at their future with the United States regardless of signals of policy continuity or discontinuity from a Harris or Trump presidency. This report, The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, provides concise analysis and predictions covering the globe, from which some common themes emerge.
Foreword by Dr. Victor Cha
President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department
and Korea Chair
An Election of Global Consequence
The audience for the U.S. presidential election is global. As Americans go to the polls, their choices have ramifications for the world. The newly formed Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at CSIS has produced a set of essays assessing the meaning of the election for Europe, Russia, Eurasia, the Indo-Pacific, the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East. While there are many differences to be found in a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency, our scholars also found few in their regions and countries preparing for continuity overall in relations with the United States after this election—they are preparing for change, with only the pace or intensity being determined by who occupies the White House in January 2025.
The U.S. election takes place at a moment when the demands of two wars in Europe and the Middle East, China’s assertiveness, and coalitions of autocratic leaders are putting unprecedented stress on the rules-based international order. These developments, as much as the election, are compelling changes in how global leaders look at their future with the United States regardless of signals of policy continuity or discontinuity from a Harris or Trump presidency. This report, The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, provides concise analysis and predictions covering the globe, from which some common themes emerge.
Africa
Resetting U.S. Engagement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
With a protracted and expanding conflict weakening the resource-rich Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country will seek a new approach to U.S. relations with the incoming administration, but Washington risks losing Congo to its adversaries.
As the Sahel Spirals, It Requires Consistent U.S. Engagement
The United States is ill-prepared to respond to mounting security threats and governance concerns across the Sahel. But any incoming U.S. administration would be wise to reset its relations with the region and highlight Russia’s growing malign influence across the region.
Keep Disagreements with South Africa in Check
U.S.-South Africa relations are at their most rocky in a generation. Pretoria’s closeness with Russia and China and stances on issues from Iran to Gaza have put the two countries on a collision course. But incoming governments create an opportunity to repair frayed ties.
Americas
The 2024 Presidential Election and the United States’ Shared Neighborhood
CSIS Americas director Ryan C. Berg and deputy director and senior fellow Christopher Hernandez-Roy analyze the likely similarities and differences in how a potential Trump or Harris administration would engage with the Western Hemisphere.
East Asia
Navigating China’s Inflection
Beijing’s policy agenda faces difficult headwinds, creating unique opportunities for the United States to confront China by leveraging its pluralistic society, adopting a nuanced approach to inbound Chinese investment, and bolstering its coalition-building efforts.
Japan: An Indispensable Partner in the Indo-Pacific
Japan is watching the U.S. election with a keen interest in furthering the U.S.-Japan alliance. The CSIS Japan Chair addresses Japan’s policy priorities and the potential implications of the election outcome for cooperation on a range of regional and global challenges.
The Korean Peninsula: Make or Break?
Nowhere in the Indo-Pacific could the U.S. presidential election results precipitate more disparate outcomes than on the Korean Peninsula. Changes could have broad strategic ripple effects throughout the region.
U.S. Policy toward China and Taiwan
U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan will likely retain its broad contours of support for Taiwan and intensifying competition with China under Harris or Trump, but will differ on economics and trade, managing Taiwan, U.S. commitments abroad, and combating PRC influence.
Europe
The World’s Largest Trade and Investment Relationship Hangs in the Balance
The stakes of the election for the EU-U.S. relationship could hardly be higher. A Trump victory would entail significant economic pain on both sides of the Atlantic, while a Harris victory would represent a continuation of the status quo.
After the Ballots: What the U.S. Elections Mean for NATO
European security is centered and organized around the United States through NATO, with European forces playing a largely supporting role to a U.S.-led effort. The United States' relationship with NATO will likely enter a new era regardless of who enters the White House next January.
An Outcome ‘Up for Grabs’: What Can Russia and Ukraine Expect from the Next U.S. Administration?
The war has led Russia and Ukraine to overstretch their resources, yet both countries are determined to continue fighting until their conditions are met. The 2024 U.S. presidential election will have a significant impact on the continuity and direction of Russia's war.
Looming Uncertainty for the Special Relationship
The outcome of the election holds two distinct tracks for the U.S.-UK relationship. Regardless of the result, establishing a common agenda with London should be a priority in the first 100 days of either a Harris or Trump administration.
Middle East
Middle East Challenges Will Vex Not Only the First 100 Days, but the First 1,000
Iran’s growing influence in the region and the ongoing war in Gaza will pose a challenge for any new U.S. administration. While either president will be under pressure to make quick progress, Middle Eastern leaders take a longer-term view of the region’s problems.
Oceania
Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific in a New U.S. Administration
In the highly contested Indo-Pacific, the U.S.-Australian alliance and Pacific Islands region have emerged as vital for U.S. national security. As U.S. leadership changes loom, it is crucial to sustain commitments to counter China and ensure U.S. influence in the region.
South & Southeast Asia
U.S.-India Security Cooperation: Thriving through Turbulence
U.S.-India security ties have flourished in the last four years despite unusually significant challenges. The primary focus of the next U.S. administration is to avoid sharp directional changes that could engender fresh distrust.
Early Success in Southeast Asia Will Run through the Philippines
Southeast Asia will play a major part in the next administration’s agenda for competing with China. But getting U.S. policy toward the Philippines right in the first 100 days will have singular importance in the region.
Read the report to find the full foreword and analyses, featuring expert insights from the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department.
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Photo Credits
Africa: (Left) US Secretary Antony Blinken (C), Democratic Republic of the Congo Foreign Minister Christophe Lutundula (L) and Zambian Foreign Minister Stanley Kakubo sign a memorandum of understanding on the sidelines of the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, DC, on December 13, 2022. | EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images (Right) Protesters gather as a man holds up a sign demanding that soldiers from the United States Army leave Niger without negotiation during a demonstration in Niamey, on April 13, 2024. | AFP via Getty Images (Bottom) US President Joe Biden shakes hands with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval office of the White House in Washington, DC, September 16, 2022. | SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images
Americas: The Organization of American States (OAS) building is seen in Washington DC on November 11, 2021. | Daniel SLIM / AFP via Getty Images
East Asia: (Top Left) freshidea via Adobe Stock (Top Right) A Japanese employee looks at the monitors to observe the US presidential elections as flags of United States and Japan are seen at a foreign exchange trading company in Tokyo on November 9, 2016. | BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP via Getty Images (Bottom Left) South Koreans wave U.S. and South Korea flags during a rally to mark the 60th anniversary of the UN foundation in front of City Hall on October 24, 2005 in Seoul, South Korea. More than 10,000 demonstrators including war veterans and Christians attended the rally to campaign the alliance between U.S. and South Korea with a pledge to maintain strong combined deterrence against North Korea. | Chung Sung-Jun via Getty Images (Bottom Right) scaliger via Adobe Stock
Europe: (Top Left) The US national flag (L) and the flag of the European Union are placed side-by-side during the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) meeting at the European Union Commission headquarter in Brussels, on July 13, 2015. | THIERRY CHARLIER/AFP via Getty Images (Top Right) A reporter works in the media center at the NATO Summit on July 9, 2024 in Washington, DC. NATO holds its annual summit in Washington this week to mark the 75th anniversary of its founding. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images (Bottom Left) A Ukrainian serviceman runs to help farmers extinguish a burning field near Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, on September 16, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | OLEKSII FILIPPOV/AFP via Getty Images (Bottom Right) Union Jack flags, the national flag of the United Kingdom, fly along Pennsylvania Avenue near the U.S. Capitol in honor of the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, September 9, 2022 in Washington, DC. | Drew Angerer via Getty Images
Middle East: Demonstrators hold up placards and Palestinian flags as they take part in a rally in solidarity with Palestine near the White House. | Ali Khaligh/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
Oceania: The national flags of participating nations are seen during the opening ceremony of the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in October 2023. | Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images
South & Southeast Asia: (Left) In this photograph taken on on December 15, 2022 the second stealth guided missile destroyer of Project 15B, Mormugao (Yard 12705) of the Indian Navy, is seen docked at the Naval Dockyard in Mumbai on the eve of its commissioning into the Indian Navy. | INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP via Getty Images (Right) US and Filipino soldiers pose for a photo in front of an AC-130J 'Ghostrider' at Subic Bay Freeport Zone on April 23, 2023, as part of the US-Philippines joint military exercise 'Balikatan'. | JAM STA ROSA/AFP via Getty Images
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